WASHINGTON – U.S. Sen. Mark R. Warner (D-VA) joined over 40 other lawmakers in writing to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Office of Government Ethics (OGE) to urge the agencies to address illegal insider trading in prediction markets by federal employees.

Since January, multiple incidents have prompted heavy concern about possible insider trading in prediction markets by federal employees, including when a Polymarket user made $400,000 by betting on the capture of Venezuela’s former leader, Nicolas Maduro, and when prediction market users projected that White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt’s speech would last for less than 65 minutes and profited when she abruptly ended the speech just 30 seconds before the 65-minute mark. Since then, there have been numerous reports of suspicious trades relating to the war in Iran.

The lawmakers pointed out that currently, under the Commodities Exchange Act (CEA), as amended by the STOCK Act, it is unlawful for federal employees to engage in insider trading, including in prediction markets.

“We ask that the CFTC and OGE issue guidance reminding federal employees of their existing legal obligation to refrain from using their insider governmental information to profit from prediction market trades,” wrote the lawmakers.

In addition, the lawmakers requested that the CFTC and OGE provide a staff-level briefing on this issue and respond to questions regarding any existing investigations into federal employees engaging in insider trading in prediction markets and any steps the agencies may have taken to detect and prevent them from doing so.

In addition to Sen. Warner, the letter was signed by U.S. Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), Jeff Merkley (D-OR), Cory Booker (D-NJ), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV), Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), Jack Reed (D-RI), John Hickenlooper (D-CO), Andy Kim (D-NJ), Raphael Warnock (D-GA), Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), Jacky Rosen (D-NV), and Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), along with U.S. Reps. Maxine Water (D-CA), Angie Craig (D-MN), Salud Carbajal (D-CA), André Carson (D-IN), Marcy Kaptur (D-OH), John Mannion (D-NY), James McGovern (D-MA), Seth Moulton (D-MA), Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-DC), Andrea Salinas (D-OR), Eric Sorensen (D-IL), Suhas Subramanyam (D-VA), Mike Thompson (D-CA), Gabe Vasquez (D-NM), Eugene Vindman (D-VA), Sean Casten (D-IL), Joe Courtney (D-CT), Nikki Budzinski (D-IL), George Whitesides (D-CA), Shontel Brown (D-OH), Jamie Raskin (D-MD), Maggie Goodlander (D-NH), Jim Costa (D-CA), Betty McCollum (D-MN), Sharice Davids (D-KS), Mike Levin (D-CA), and Dina Titus (D-NV).

Read the full letter here and below.

Dear Chairman Selig and Division Directors of the Office of Government Ethics:

We ask that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Office of Government Ethics (OGE) circulate executive branch–wide guidance explaining that federal employees must refrain from insider trading in prediction markets.

In recent weeks, multiple incidents have prompted speculation about possible insider trading in prediction markets by federal employees. Over the weekend of January 3-4, 2026, a Polymarket user made $400,000 by betting on the capture of Venezuela’s former leader, Nicolás Maduro, raising suspicions that the user traded with insider government knowledge. Then on January 7, 2026, prediction market users projected that White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt’s speech would last for less than 65 minutes, and profited when she abruptly ended the speech just 30 seconds before the 65-minute mark — reinforcing concerns that government officials sometimes have control over events on prediction markets. More recently, it has been reported that a number of users engaged in suspicious trades relating to the invasion of Iran and the death of Ayatollah Khamenei (sparking national security concerns about signaling impending attacks), and on whether former DHS Secretary Kristi Noem would be fired.

Under the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA), as amended by the STOCK Act, it is “unlawful for any employee or agent of any department or agency of the Federal Government” to use certain information — information that (1) is non-public, (2) is acquired by virtue of the individual’s government employment, and (3) may affect or tends to affect the price of a commodity or swap — “in his personal capacity and for personal gain to enter into, or offer to enter into” a futures contract, option, or swap.

The CFTC has determined that event contracts are derivatives that depend on the occurrence or nonoccurrence of an event “with a potential financial, economic, or commercial consequence.” Thus, the CEA’s prohibition on government officials engaging in insider trading also applies to such activity in prediction markets, and the CFTC is currently seeking public feedback on how the government insider trading provision should inform its regulation of prediction markets. While there is pending litigation concerning whether particular categories of event contracts traded on prediction markets should be regulated as derivatives under the CEA or as gambling under state law (or both), the CFTC maintains that event contracts are a type of swap subject to its jurisdiction, and, therefore, it should ensure that federal employees understand existing restrictions on prediction market insider trading.

In short, given the exponential growth in prediction market trading, rising evidence suggesting possible governmental insider trading in prediction markets, and potential confusion surrounding existing law in this area, we ask that the CFTC and OGE issue guidance reminding federal employees of their existing legal obligation to refrain from using their insider governmental information to profit from prediction market trades. This guidance would align with the CFTC’s growing focus on “polic[ing] illegal trading practices occurring on . . . prediction markets,” as reflected in its recent advance notice of proposed rulemaking and its flagging of Kalshi’s internal enforcement cases related to prediction market insider trading. As concerns grow about illegal insider trading in prediction markets by government officials, the CFTC and OGE should work with appropriate partners to prophylactically remind federal personnel of their obligations in this arena.

We request a staff-level briefing on these matters, along with answers to the following questions, by Monday, April 13:

1. Has the CFTC, OGE, or another agency distributed guidance instructing federal employees that they must refrain from insider trading in prediction markets?
2. Has the CFTC investigated, received reports of, or otherwise become aware of instances of federal employees engaging in insider trading in prediction markets?
3. What steps, if any, is the CFTC taking to detect and prevent insider trading by federal employees on unregulated or overseas prediction markets?
4. What steps, if any, will the CFTC take to increase federal employees’ understanding of restrictions on insider trading in prediction markets?
5. What steps, if any, is the CFTC taking to work with the designated contract markets it regulates to detect and prevent insider trading by federal employees?

Thank you for your attention to this matter.

Sincerely,

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